Academy • Concepts
Trend vs Seasonality — Don’t Get Tricked by Spikes
Why this matters
Marketplace search data is full of “beautiful” spikes that can fool you into bad decisions. Some spikes are part of a real long-term trend. Others are just seasonal noise.
If you confuse the two, you either:
- launch a product too late into a seasonal wave, or
- ignore a real trend that is quietly compounding.
What we mean by “trend”
A trend is a sustained move in one direction across time. In search data, that usually means:
- rank is improving (numbers going down) across many weeks, not just one;
- there is a clear slope in the chart, even if there is noise;
- the pattern doesn’t instantly reset to the old baseline.
Trends often come from real changes in behaviour: new use cases, new styles, new gifting patterns, new problems to solve.
What we mean by “seasonality”
Seasonality is a pattern that repeats in a predictable window: holidays, back-to-school, wedding season, tax time, etc.
- Searches jump up, then fall back to the old baseline.
- The spike usually lines up with a known calendar event.
- Next year, the pattern often repeats in a similar week range.
Seasonality is not “bad” — you just need to treat it differently in product and PPC decisions.
How to tell them apart in charts
Signs of a real trend
- Multiple consecutive improvements in rank, with only small pullbacks.
- Higher lows: even when it dips, it doesn’t fully reset.
- No hard “cut” right after a fixed calendar date.
Signs of pure seasonality
- One tall spike, then a fast return to the old level.
- Movement tightly clustered around known dates (e.g. end-of-year).
- Very little build-up before the peak and no follow-through after.
How Uptrend Hunter fits into this
Uptrend Hunter surfaces terms with improving rank over a chosen week range. How you read that depends on where you are in the calendar.
- During heavy seasonal periods, expect more sharp spikes.
- Outside those periods, strong moves are more likely to be real structural shifts.
- For ambiguous cases, compare different week ranges (short vs long).
The tool shows you the movement; it’s your job to decide if it’s a wave or a one-off splash.
Practical rules for product decisions
- Don’t launch a new product purely because of a single seasonal spike, especially if you are already mid-season.
- For seasonal ideas, plan ahead: use this year’s pattern to plan next year’s inventory and positioning, not a last-minute scramble.
- For non-seasonal categories, give more weight to trends that stay strong across both “busy” and “quiet” months.
Practical rules for PPC decisions
During seasonal waves
- Be willing to scale rising seasonal terms — but with an exit date in mind.
- Track performance weekly; expect the wave to break quickly after the event.
- Don’t treat seasonal performance as your new permanent baseline.
Outside seasonal windows
- Give more budget to terms with clean, sustained momentum.
- Use trend strength to decide where to consolidate campaigns.
- Cut or down-bid terms that clearly rolled over after their peak.
Simple checklist for each rising term
- Is this move tied to a clear calendar event?
- If I zoom out, does the chart show a new level or does it snap back?
- Would this opportunity still make sense outside the peak weeks?
If the answer is “only makes sense for a short calendar window”, treat it as a seasonal play. If the answer is “yes, this persists”, you are likely looking at a real trend.